Industry Insights
The U.S. trucking industry, in numbers.
Generated recently UTC
Heads up
This page combines public FMCSA registry data with macro indicators and statistical forecasts. Numbers are not independently verified, source feeds can lag, and forecasts are model estimates — not guarantees. Treat figures as approximate, and don't rely on them for trading, regulatory, or contractual decisions. See the limitations and disclaimer at the bottom for specifics.
New registrations vs revocations, last 24 months
Monthly counts from the FMCSA census and revocation history feeds. Solid lines are completed months. Dashed lines are 3-month trailing averages.
Forecast unavailable
Reason: cache_cold.
Fleet size distribution
Active carriers grouped by self-reported power-unit count.
Fleet concentration
Share of total power units operated by the largest carriers.
Out-of-service rate by fleet size
Lifetime vehicle and driver OOS rates among carriers with at least 10 inspections.
Active carriers per 100,000 residents
Top 15 states by per-capita carrier count.
Revocation reinstatement rate
How this page is built
Industry statistics come from FMCSA's public registry, refreshed daily. The Health Index and forecast models combine that data with macro indicators (interest rates, fuel prices, freight indexes, supply-chain measures) and produce backtested predictions for the trucking stock basket, the Health Index, diesel prices, new-registration surges, state-level crash counts, and 12-month carrier survival rates.
Every model is retrained on the most recent data and evaluated against a rolling backtest window. Headline metrics include 95% confidence intervals where applicable.
Sources
- FMCSA — carrier registry, inspections, crashes, revocations, authority history (data.transportation.gov)
- Federal Reserve (FRED) — interest rates, oil prices, industrial production, employment, freight indicators (fred.stlouisfed.org)
- Cass Information Systems — Cass Freight Index (cassinfo.com)
- NY Fed — Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (newyorkfed.org)
- EIA — U.S. diesel retail prices (eia.gov)
- BTS — cross-border truck volumes (data.bts.gov)
- Yahoo Finance — monthly stock closes for the trucking-stock basket and benchmarks
- U.S. Census Bureau — state populations
Data limitations
- Industry-wide crash totals understate reality by roughly 22%. About one in five crashes in the FMCSA source data can't be linked to a specific carrier, so they're excluded from per-carrier figures.
- The current month's crash count is preliminary. Police reports take 1-2 months to fully flow into FMCSA; recent values typically only reflect 50-70% of what eventually settles.
- Fleet sizes are self-reported. Power-unit counts come from each carrier's most-recent MCS-150 filing, which they update on their own schedule.
- The survival forecast counts both formal revocations and voluntary cessations as "failure." A carrier that retires or gets acquired is treated the same as one that loses authority.
- Backtest results are based on 18 months of data — read the confidence intervals, not just the headline numbers.
- The 1-month stock-basket forecast is the noisiest figure on the page. Read it as direction, not as a precise number.
- Survival probabilities are approximate, especially in the 50-70% range.
Disclaimer
Not financial advice. Forecasts on this page are statistical estimates, not investment recommendations. Don't trade on them.
Not regulatory advice. The carrier-survival forecast is not an FMCSA safety rating or a substitute for due diligence on any specific carrier. Don't use it to deny shipping contracts, employment, insurance, or any other consequential decision.
Backtests aren't guarantees. Past model performance does not predict future results. Models can fail without warning during regime changes.
No warranty. Figures and predictions are provided as-is. Cargo Credible makes no warranty regarding accuracy or fitness for any purpose, and is not liable for decisions made based on this page.